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Washington's Dilemma: Not a Recession, It's a Collapse

Washington is bluffing that it will not bail out California, and every other state suffering from collapsed revenues and massive job losses. If cuts in police and schools don't force DC off from its current position, then the math will. Because in many states the aggregate revenue losses and looming cuts to state payrolls will largely render the intended effects of federal stimulus as moot. Frankly, unless Washington prints money and bails out every state that needs capital, including California, federal power will decline amidst this severe economic recession, and the process of a soft American devolution will begin. If you think this idea is outrageous, then you've still not come to terms with a core reality of our current situation: the structure of this financial crisis is wholly different than any in our post-war era. This isn't a recession. This is collapse. In Recession vs. Collapse published in March, this blog explained that in a normal recession existing savings are used to support government debt issuance and that those who remain employed increase their savings to also support government debt issuance. Neither phenomenon is at work today. Yes, the savings rate has soared in the US. But this has not resulted in any actual accrued savings. Because private sector debt came to define the internal structure of the US system, savings currently is little more than debt service. Also, bank purchases of US Treasuries are really just a result of the circularity of monetization. It's just money from the FED being recycled into Treasuries. There is no privately driven growth of bank deposits, in the aggregate. Americans as a class are broke. What the savings rate more accurately measures is a collapse of consumer spending.

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The Genius of Goldman?

The Genius of Goldman?

What’s up with the mainstream media acolytes who keep aluding to the genius of Goldman Sachs?

What genius?

If it wasn’t for their former CEO Hank Paulson bankrupting their competition (Bear and Lehman) and then extorting Congress behind closed doors under the threat of martial law, they wouldn’t even be in business today.

Does having your former CEO being able to choose who among your competitors lives, or dies, make you a genius?

Does having your former CEO bail you out via the backdoor of AIG, make you a genius?

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JP Morgan Chase Is Back To Playing Hardball

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., freed from the government's strictures after repaying $25 billion in federal money, is back to playing hardball. The bank's tougher stands include stepping up its opposition to the government's proposed legislation on derivatives and telling the Treasury Department it is fed up with haggling over the value of warrants that the government holds in J.P. Morgan. The bank also is talking tough with clients and taking market share and top performers from competitors. The renewed swagger comes as J.P. Morgan is poised to report strong quarterly results on Thursday, solidifying its place as the strongest ...

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The New Energy Crisis

Matt Simmons has been a lone voice in the wilderness warning Americans about the impending peak-oil crisis. His prediction of a global peak in crude-oil production at 73 million barrels per day in 2005 has proved correct. Worldwide total liquids production peaked at 86 million barrels in 2008. All the "easy" oil and gas in the world has been found. Additional supplies will be found deep below the ocean, in challenging arctic regions, in tar sands, and shale. It will be dramatically more expensive to extract oil from these sources. Oil discoveries have been in a steady decline since the 1970s.

The United States has been dependent on 600 million barrels of oil from Mexico every year. By 2012 Mexico will become a net importer of oil, so 600 million barrels of oil will need to be replaced. Iran’s oil production is in decline as capital investment has been ignored for years. Russia’s production has peaked. Saudi Arabia continues to dissimulate about its ability to ramp up production. Their oil fields are 40 years old and in terminal decline. By 2012, the world will only be able to produce 80 million barrels per day. There's no doubt that demand in 2012 will be higher than today’s 85 million barrels per day as China, India, and other developing countries continue to grow. Even a Wall Street economist could predict what will happen to prices.

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CIT Group's 'Capital' Was All Talk, No Trousers

Even as CIT Group Inc. teetered near collapse this week, neither the company nor its overlords at the Federal Reserve Board ever backed off their official position that the struggling lender was “well capitalized.” Coming from the world’s most powerful central bank, that designation used to mean something about a company’s financial strength and ability to absorb losses. Not anymore. Investors watched yesterday as yet another major financial- services company angled for a government bailout -- this time unsuccessfully -- while still sporting U.S. banking regulators’ highest capital rating. It’s a sure thing CIT won’t be the last.

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Derivatives Crisis: More Bailouts On Deck?

The derivatives market is about as ugly as it gets, and puts a new edge on 'too big to fail, to big to exist." The banks want to keep the game going because it suits their current model of taking risks, making huge bonuses, and writing off the losses to the public. It remains to be seen if the Obama Administration has what it takes to regulate and rein in the banks. While Larry Summers and Tim Geithner are on the team the answer is probably 'no.'

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Bad for the Goose, Worse for the Gander

Last week, major banks announced they would no longer offer cash for the IOU's written by the state of California. At the same time, China proposed that the U.S. dollar be replaced as the world's official reserve currency. Although seemingly unrelated, these two developments have at their root the same issue: uneasy creditors. Inspired by Washington's profligacy, California's Democratic majority long pursued a policy of populist politics, supercharged by referendums, which called for increasingly massive expenditures. Exploding deficits were the natural result. Now, it has reached the point where holders and potential buyers of California debt have lost confidence in the state's ability to ever repay. Ever since President Nixon severed the dollar's link to gold in August 1971, the U.S. has embarked on a monetary policy that has been both a blessing and a curse. The blessing was found in the dollar's reserve status, which allowed for monetary flexibility that no other country could attempt. But therein lay the curse, as gross economic imbalances were allowed to grow unaddressed. Our currency's exportability obscured the fact that our government spending was financed largely by inflation and debt. It appears that California politicians assumed that they could follow the same model. They began to authorize massive expenditures on freeways, schools, universities, and parks. In their thirst for votes, they introduced a vast array of referendums on entitlement issues. This is quite unlike Switzerland's successful forays into direct democracy, which restricted referendums to election laws and constitutional matters. Absent limits to their purview, California voters inevitably granted themselves new benefits from the public purse, financed by increased taxation and debt. This led to ever higher voter demands and a dramatic rise in real estate values. In imitating the example of Congress, California's politicians made one crucial error. Like the Administration, they could tax and borrow. But unlike Washington, California could not print money.

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The G-8 Is Dead

Democracy no longer counts for much. Neither does freedom. And human rights have lost their claim to universal validity. That, in a nutshell, is one result of the G-8 summit in the Italian city of L'Aquila last week. It was a funeral ceremony: The G-8 is dead, at least as a global leadership forum. It has now been reduced to a mere talking shop for certain heads of state and government. The important decisions are made elsewhere.

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CIT Talks Fall Apart, Bankruptcy Looms

"Discussions with government agencies have ceased," CIT said in a statement. "There is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term."

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"Bear Market Rallies Demystified"

Discussion of the 50% Retracement Rule, potential future price levels, time studies, key dates, Fibonacci, Gann, Astro numbers, Robert Rhea's Great Depression analysis.

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Are 'Rogues' or Firms Manipulating our Markets?

Everyone has heard of the Wikipedia but not everyone knows about the Investopedia, a Forbes website, that monitors finance for market players. One of the issues it is concerned about is market manipulation, actions by rogue and not so rogue players who, working alone or together, unduly influence the way our supposed “free” markets function. It is a fascinating source of information for the uninitiated who hear the daily reports on the ups and downs of the Dow and believe that somehow it is all part of the natural order of the universe.

It isn’t.

Thanks to an even more informative web site, Gamingthemarket.com, we learn that in fact markets are subject to, prone to, and characterized by all sorts of manipulative practices.

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The Very Fabric Of Society Is Breaking Down Around Us. What The Hell Is There Left To Believe In?

It's all gone wrong. Our belief in everything has been shattered by a series of shock revelations that have shaken our core to its core. You can't move for toppling institutions. Television, the economy, the police, the House of Commons, and, most recently, the press ... all revealed to be jam-packed with liars and bastards and graspers and bullies and turds.

And we knew. We knew. But we were deep in denial, like a cuckolded partner who knows the sorry truth but tries their best to ignore it. Over the last 18 months the spotlight of truth has swung this way and that, and one institution after another was suddenly exposed as being precisely as rotten as we always thought it was. What's that? Phone-in TV quizzes might a bit of con? The economic boom is an unsustainable fantasy? Riot police can be a little "handy"? MPs are greedy? The News of the World might have used underhand tactics to get a story? What next? Oxygen is flavourless? Cows stink at water polo? Children are overrated? We knew all this stuff. We just didn't have the details.

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