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The CNBC Business Model

Whit the recent elimination of anything even remotely approaching journalistic rigor or analysis, and its substitution with endless propaganda and the pitching of "hope" as an investment conduit, many have been scratching their heads over the question of just how it is that CNBC is still on the air, let alone make money: after all selling hope is a very expensive process.

I provide the answer. Below is an early segment from CNBC in which Joe Kernan provides his analysis of Schwab's just released results. As the video quality is pretty bad (yeah, I know, sorry) I will summarize how it works:

1. Intro - Kernan: Glowing review of Schwab's EPS "beat"

2. Kernan: "Schwab is a fine, fine company and a fine individual."

3. Kernan: "...and quite a sponsor for us."

4. Kernan: "...and we are ready to just be sponsored on Squawk Box."

5. Conclusion - Kernan: "...I don't think you can have too much [of Schwab]."

6. Cut to Charles Schwab Commercial.

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"United Scholars For The Fed"

Update on the petition of "scholars" who believe the Fed's status quo is the only way to maintain their tenure. The full list for your convenience. Alas, Ben Dover from DeVry is nowhere to be found in the list... Additionally, the organizer of this whole shindig seems to be Anil Kashyap of Chicago Booth. Is it at all surprising that his bio has the following data: Prior to joining the Chicago Booth faculty in 1991, Kashyap spent three years as an economist for the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System. He currently works as a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and serves as a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and as a Research Associate for the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Paging Ben Dover To Provide Taxpayer Funded Workplace Humor

It doesn't get more surreal than this. In Federal Solicitation RFI-BPD-09-0028, the The Department Of The Treasury is seeking a contractor to provide... Humor in the Workplace. As there is $800 billion to be spent, what better way than for Tim Geithner to get himself a private court jester (with the market relying on the PPT every day at 3pm to prevent a complete and total meltdown we kinda sympathize with the morose, yet tax-troubled guy). Obama's stimulus doesn't get better than this - you, dear taxpayer, would indirectly fund some guy cracking bad jokes (most likely about the economy and politicians): now that is a way to get the economy started if there ever was one.

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Nature, Wealth, and Money

Since the beginning of the current series of Archdruid Report posts on economics, I’ve wondered in an idle sort of way if it might come to the attention of a professional economist or two. Last week’s post, though, seems to have settled that issue. I deliberately begged a question in that post, one that cuts to the core of conventional economic theory, and it would have taken a degree of self-control exceedingly rare in any profession for a mainstream economist to read the discussion and not rise to the bait. I’m referring, of course, to the cavalier way in which the concept of money was treated in last week’s post. In terms of mainstream economics, it’s nonsense to talk about wealth or value without discussing how those things are reflected in some form of pricing mechanism – that is, how they’re measured in money. The widely held belief that the wealth produced by nature is valueless until it’s transformed into something else by human labor, in fact, bases itself largely on the fact that nobody has to pay the nonhuman world for that wealth, and so figuring out its price poses a major challenge – not insoluble, but significant enough that few economists have been willing to take it up.

Since Adam Smith launched modern economics in 1776 with The Wealth of Nations, unresolved disputes over the nature of money have formed a fault line running straight through the heartland of economic thought. Some economists – these days, the majority – treat wealth and money as interchangeable concepts.

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Suddenly Open to New Possibilities

Many people believe that Prohibition ended because it failed as a social policy. However, according to a July 2007 commentary by economist Donald Boudreaux, the real reason why the ban on alcohol sales was lifted in the 1930s was because of money -- money for a cash-starved government -- during a time of widespread economic woe. With no end of the Depression in sight, Washington got anxious for a substitute source of revenue. That source was liquor sales.

Given current circumstances, it should be no surprise to anyone, as Reuters reveals in "States See $ Sign in Gaming, Analysts Skeptical" that moral issues are increasingly taking a back seat to harsh economic realities.

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"The Federal Government Works for Goldman and Not for Us"

Veteran reporter Robert Scheer writes today:

"The federal government works for Goldman and not for us."

Is Scheer's claim over the top? Well, the assistant secretary of the Treasury under Reagan, Paul Craig Roberts agrees with Scheer, saying that Treasury Secretary Geithner "works for Goldman Sachs", and not the American public:

Interviewer: Does the treasury secretary work for the people or does he work for the banking system on Wall Street?

Roberts: He works for Goldman Sachs.

See this and this, and this parody.

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Raven The "Realist"

A couple of days ago I posted a message suggesting that it was likely that the Dow would break 10K in the near future. That looks like a near-certainty now; my target date for that is the second week in August. One year from now I expect the Dow and S&P to be approaching their ATHs (all time highs). The reason is simply that the market is too heavily manipulated for there to be much downside, and this is coming to be more and more recognized. Those people who expect the average investor to say "gee, p/e's are getting awfully high so maybe I should get out" are living in a fantasy land. This just doesn't happen, just the opposite happens in fact. When the market goes up dramatically all of the fence sitters want to jump in to avoid being left behind. Regarding new ATHs, it would take a roughly 60% rise in the Dow from current levels to reach it. Recalling that the Dow has risen nearly 40% in the last four months, a 60% rise in the next year seems entirely feasible. As I explained earlier, this type of market action tends to accelerate by drawing in those individuals who were previously scared. I find the degree of market manipulation and corruption on Wall Street as revolting as anyone. Still, I'm long the market simply because I'm a realist.

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Financial Advice of The Day

"I'm going to give you a piece of advice you'll thank me for the rest of your life, kiddo."

"Never forget this. The first million bucks you make-put it away! You don't ever touch that, you hear me? That's your 'Fuck you' money."

"That way, anybody ever tries to make you do something you don't want to do, you can tell 'em, 'Fuck you.' "

Swifty Lazar 1950

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Aging Baby Boomer Facts

- 38% of the US population

- $13 trillion in Household assets

- 50% of all discretionary income

- Purchased 43% of all new cars

- 79% of all leisure travel spending

- Ate out four to five times a week

- Outspent other generations 2 to 1

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English Language Newspapers

Europe, United Kingdom, South America, Asia, Africa, Middle East, The Pacific, The Carribean & Native Language Newspapers


"Banana Republic Report"

Podcasts


"Bear Market Rallies Demystified"

Discussion of the 50% Retracement Rule, potential future price levels, time studies, key dates, Fibonacci, Gann, Astro numbers, Robert Rhea's Great Depression analysis.

BBR for May 8th, 2009 (MP3)

Social Bookmarks

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 1

Winter is coming. Are you prepared? Americans see time as their enemy. Most Americans have bought into a view of the past and future as linear. When you observe the world in linear way and things are going well, the population is happy and confident. If you view the world in a linear way and things are going badly, the population sees nothing but terrible times ahead. This linear outlook of history and the future is not rational or supported by facts. I’m convinced that world history is not on a linear path towards Armageddon and the Rapture. This belief is preached by many of the mainstream religions, but the truth is that we’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end in the 2nd Coming of Christ. The American belief in a destiny of never ending progress will undergo its 3rd major crisis period since its founding. The resolution of this crisis is 10 to 20 years in the future. The outcome will remain in doubt until the definitive resolution.

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Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

Barack Obama became the 1st Generation X-er to be elected President of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated young adults. Generation X leaders will be pragmatic, savvy and practical. Obama has proven thus far to be pragmatic and able to get his agenda initiated. Previous Nomad leaders who proved to be highly competent doers during a time of Crisis include Dwight D. Eisenhower, George Patton, and Harry Truman.

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Starbucks Hides Its Name In New Stores

Starbucks Corp. said Thursday it is wiping its name from one of its Seattle-area stores and adding alcohol to the menu. The Seattle-based gourmet coffee chain said it is changing the name of one of its existing stores in its hometown to a name that reflects the neighborhood location. The store will be called 15th Avenue Coffee and Tea. It will open next week and will serve coffee and tea as well as wine and beer. The company said it will then open two more Seattle-area stores without the Starbucks name in locations that aren't currently Starbucks stores. The chain said if the rethought coffee shop is a success it will consider replicating it in other cities.

"It's interesting," said Morningstar analyst R.J. Hottovy, "especially since the Starbucks brand has been such an integral part of their success."

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